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07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees used the long ball to come through with a win over the Cleveland Indians last night, but none came off the bat of Alex Rodriguez.
With their star slugger still stuck on 599 career home runs, the Yankees vie for a second straight victory in this four-game series when the defending world champions return to Progressive Field this evening.
Rodriguez failed in his attempt to become the seventh player in major league history to reach the 600-homer milestone in Monday's opener of this set, but the Yankees did receive round-trippers from Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher in their 3-2 triumph over the Indians. Granderson's shot, a two-run blast off Tribe starter Jake Westbrook in the top of the eighth inning, erased a 2-1 deficit and helped give New York its fifth win in its last six contests.
Westbrook (6-7) had limited the Yankees' potent offense to one run over the first seven innings, but gave up a leadoff single to Jorge Posada in the eighth and Granderson followed with a deep drive into the right-field seats to put New York ahead.
"I don't know exactly [about] the location," said Westbrook of the pitch. "I mean, [Granderson's] a good low-ball hitter and that's what I'm trying to do is keep the ball down and get a double play -- and he hit a homer."
Granderson's homer also made a winner out of Javier Vazquez (9-7) after the Yankee starter held Cleveland to two runs and five hits over seven innings. Mariano Rivera protected the lead with a scoreless ninth to notch his 21st save of the year.
Rodriguez finished 0-for-4 and has now gone four games since hitting career homer No. 599 in a win over Kansas City last Thursday. The three-time American League MVP will continue his quest tonight, when he'll also be celebrating his 35th birthday.
"I'm not really concerned about it," said Rodriguez of reaching the mark. "It's going to come whether it's this week, or next week or next month. The important thing for me is to stay within the game, take my walks. It all comes back to the same fundamentals."
Rodriguez, as well as the rest of his Yankee teammates, will be going up against an unfamiliar opponent this evening, with the Indians tabbing Josh Tomlin to make his first major league start. The young right-hander will be taking the rotation spot of Aaron Laffey, placed on the disabled list last week due to a fatigued left shoulder.
Tomlin earned tonight's assignment by compiling an 8-4 record over 20 appearances (17 starts) with Triple-A Columbus, and his 2.68 earned run average currently ranks second-best in the International League. The 25-year- old has been a consistent winner after since being selected by the Tribe in the 19th round of the 2006 draft, having gone 51-24 over five seasons in the minors.
The Yankees bring a far more experienced pitcher into the fray tonight, with former Indians star CC Sabathia set to take on his original team. The All-Star southpaw will be taking aim at his 150th career victory when he takes the mound, in addition to trying to become the AL's first 14-game winner of the season.
Sabathia is tied with Tampa Bay's David Price for the league lead in wins and enters tonight's game having come out on top in each of his last nine decisions. The New York ace is unbeaten in 11 straight starts since his most recent loss, which took place against the crosstown-rival Mets on May 23.
He extended his remarkable win streak in the Yankees' 10-4 triumph over Kansas City on Thursday, although Sabathia wasn't at his best that night. He was touched for four runs (three earned) and gave up a season high-tying 11 hits over 6 1/3 innings, but did register nine strikeouts for the game.
Sabathia broke into the majors with the Indians in 2001 and pitched 7 1/2 seasons with Cleveland before being traded to Milwaukee midway through the 2008 campaign. He amassed a 106-71 record during his tenure with the Tribe and captured the AL's Cy Young Award after going 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA in 2007.
The 30-year-old did take on the Indians at Progressive Field once last season, and dealt his ex-club a loss with seven innings of three-run ball that night. Sabathia also recorded a pair of no-decisions in two other starts against Cleveland, including a May 29 clash at Yankee Stadium in which he permitted five runs in six innings of work.
New York took three of four games from the Indians in that late-May series at Yankee Stadium and has prevailed in eight of the last 10 clashes between the teams. In their only visit to Cleveland last season, the Yankees won three of four tests from the Tribe.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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The AFC South and the NFC East are the favorite divisions to have the next Super Bowl champ among them in the NFL betting odds. But more down to the point, these football odds are in favor of the Indianapolis Colts, by far the strongest team in the AFC South, and the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC East.
Most sports fans would agree that these two teams top the list to win it all before the season even begins. In the BetUS Sportsbook football futures, the Colts are +800 in the odds to win the Super Bowl, while the Cowboys are sitting at +1000 and the Super Bowl XLIV champions New Orleans Saints at +900. In the AFC South, the Colts won the division for five straight years after the 2002 realignment, before the Tennessee Titans won it in 2008. But the Colts came back strong in 2009 to win the division again en route to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are the favorite to win the NFC East, as well as to advance far into the post season. The Cowboys won the division last season before their horrendous loss in the NFC Divisional playoff to Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. But the ‘Boys will take that loss humbly and be ready for the playoffs this time around.
The NFC South is also very strong, at +600 in the NFL futures, considering that it is home to the defending Super Bowl champions. However, some predictions have the Atlanta Falcons with possibilities of claiming the divisional title this season in place of the Saints, as no team has won back-to-back division championships since the division realignment took place. Let’s not overlook the AFC North at +500. As TO goes to Cincinnati to join Chad OchoCinco and Adam “Pac-Man” Jones, this team looks to claim the division title again. And it is likely they will do so. The Bengals lost in the AFC Wild Card spot in a hard-fought battle against the New York Jets last season. Lest not forget the Pittsburgh Steelers, the XLII Super Bowl Champions… All these teams present interesting odds and matchups for the upcoming season, but the safest and surest bet seems to be with the Colts in the AFC South and the Cowboys in the NFC East. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
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